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Re: History of the new Bypass line in Tacoma? For "only" 10 minutes
Author: BOB2
Date: 12-22-2017 - 14:08
And... it cost 181 million to build the bypass and save ten minutes.... So your point is?
Ten minutes per train, each way, intercity, and partly for commuter passengers, times 365 days a year for 30 years. Now you just multiply that times the cost per minute saved in operations, and the value of time savings for each passenger, and the annual total of those savings are times that thirty year investment is? You can then use that to calculate the ROI.
What is the cost per train hour to operate the trains....? What is the average value of travel time in the Puget Sound region.....? What is the average ridership per train along that segment? All necessary components to assess cost benefits over the expected 30 year life of the investment.....
When we did that back in the mid nineties and again in the mid 2000's for the LAUPT run through tracks, the savings were "only" ten minutes per movement, as well..... times over 250 minimum likely movements per day, at (back then IIRC?) around $600 per hour train costs, times 365 day per year, for how many years do you think it will be usable....?
A calculation based on a thirty year public private financing plan for the LAUPT run through showed that, on only half of the operating cost savings the project generated to the rail operators (Amtrak and ML), and the other half paid as a "user fee", that this $800+ million project could be easily built with private funding with a profit of over 8%. Making it one of the best performing opportunities for a true public private partnership project that I've ever seen in my career.
Of course, it only saved a mere ten minutes times 20,000 passengers a day, at a Sou Cal regional value of travel time saving of $27 an hour (approximately half of the average hourly wage rate back then was considered the value of user travel time savigns, which we also use for highway projects......) none of which was used for the financial planning of the run through, but which would be used for cost benefit analysis, making it the number one intercity priority rail project in terms of cost benefit in the State.
A little more of that complicated math, just for those who seem to know the cost of some of these things, but don't seem to know too much about how to calculate the value of some of these things........
Ten minutes per train, each way, intercity, and partly for commuter passengers, times 365 days a year for 30 years. Now you just multiply that times the cost per minute saved in operations, and the value of time savings for each passenger, and the annual total of those savings are times that thirty year investment is? You can then use that to calculate the ROI.
What is the cost per train hour to operate the trains....? What is the average value of travel time in the Puget Sound region.....? What is the average ridership per train along that segment? All necessary components to assess cost benefits over the expected 30 year life of the investment.....
When we did that back in the mid nineties and again in the mid 2000's for the LAUPT run through tracks, the savings were "only" ten minutes per movement, as well..... times over 250 minimum likely movements per day, at (back then IIRC?) around $600 per hour train costs, times 365 day per year, for how many years do you think it will be usable....?
A calculation based on a thirty year public private financing plan for the LAUPT run through showed that, on only half of the operating cost savings the project generated to the rail operators (Amtrak and ML), and the other half paid as a "user fee", that this $800+ million project could be easily built with private funding with a profit of over 8%. Making it one of the best performing opportunities for a true public private partnership project that I've ever seen in my career.
Of course, it only saved a mere ten minutes times 20,000 passengers a day, at a Sou Cal regional value of travel time saving of $27 an hour (approximately half of the average hourly wage rate back then was considered the value of user travel time savigns, which we also use for highway projects......) none of which was used for the financial planning of the run through, but which would be used for cost benefit analysis, making it the number one intercity priority rail project in terms of cost benefit in the State.
A little more of that complicated math, just for those who seem to know the cost of some of these things, but don't seem to know too much about how to calculate the value of some of these things........
