Re: KCS+CP merger - reading more...
Author: FUD
Date: 03-22-2021 - 18:09
The Reuters update as of late today has more interesting info, like the corn producers being happy. It's becoming clearer, though, that this isn't a "merger of equals" - CP is buying KCS, period. KCS stockholders will get some fractional CP shares and cash, and that's it. So, unless this is a MoPac/UP or McDonnell-Douglas/Boeing deal (where the executives of the purchased company took over the buyer), KCS people just walk away with cash and CP keeps the railroad. It could easily end up just CP, though they'd probably have to KCSdeM for political reasons. The analysts are a little worried about the CP debt load once it's done, but it's not a panic yet.
I could see the railroad becoming CP & Southern.
Other points that the financial pages are probably going to be talking about over the next few days/weeks (until some other big-money deal comes up): this gives CP direct access to both Texas and Louisiana chemical country - not just oil markets. So CSX and NS will get some single-line competition on hauls into the Northeast and parts of Canada. Also, CP will end up with 2 major Pacific ports including one that's almost exclusively theirs: Vancouver BC and Lazaro Cardenas.
CN will be Very Unhappy - they'll be the last one standing with no direct access to MX or the Texas Chemical Coast (though they do have a big chunk of Louisiana), and all of its Pacific and Atlantic ports in Canada. Would CN have to get some trackage rights to Lake Charles, Houston, Corpus Christi, and MX to make the package work? Is the MX port traffic enough to make UP/BNSF want a piece as part of the merger?