Scott,

SMART operates from Cloverdale to a hill over a quarter mile from the ferry
terminal. SMART has claimed it will be picking people up by shuttle
(some will walk over the overpass...it's about a 7 minute walk), but then
the shuttle won't serve most of the riders who aren't going to the ferry
terminal.

You suggested that a large portion of SMART's riders will be taking the train
to the ferry. Not according to SMART's on EIR which states that only 40-55
people a day are expected to take the train to the ferry. There are several
reasons for this. First, most people who take the ferry now have already
sorted themselves and live in San Rafael south. People who work in walking
distance of the ferry terminal, typically don't live in Sonoma.
Second, the transfer is a killer. Seven minutes doesn't sound like a long
walk, but it reduces the numbers who will make it. Also, seven minutes is
for a healthy person on a clear day. It's another story at night or in
bad weather.

Also, Marin did not withdraw from BART. San Mateo County withdrew and
once that happened, the BART BOD decided the economics did not pan out
to bring BART into Marin. For reference you can read this on the BART
website, which has a discussion of the history of BART.