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Re: Highandaway 37 and not so SMART/NWP
Author: FUD
Date: 09-04-2024 - 07:46
You don't need "all of the ice" to melt to have a problem. It's melted enough (not just in Alaska) that sea level has risen nearly a foot (worldwide average) since 37 and the railroad were build in the late 1800s/early 1900s. Local effects pile on top of that cause problems now, and the building (and rebuilding) of dikes and levees hasn't kept up with them. Even if no more ice melts (there's ample evidence that it's melting, at an increasing rate), the increasing temperature of the oceans (easily measured) causes the water to expand and pushes SLR as well.
From that evil Wikipedia:
"How high?" depends on your timeframe and location and how much global warming continues. We're pretty much committed to at least 1 foot globally by 2100. It could easily reach 1 meter. And longer term, 75-100' (in our great-great-grandchildren's lifetime) is possible. Local rise can be more or less depending on land subsidence for various reasons; the North Bay has a bit of subsidence contributing.
There really are only two ways to react: find some way to (temporarily) protect what you've got, or move. Once things get to the point they are now, if you live below 10-20' elevation or have important infrastructure there, it's time to do or start planning something. Doing something that will last for at least 50 years or so is what the Highway 37 project is about. Should the railroad try to piggyback on it?
Last time this happened, people lived in temporary camps, had few belongings they couldn't carry, and along the coast had a lot of little boats. They moved. Undoubtedly there were a few conflicts along the way with those who already had territory staked out inland, but they were all related tribes so it probably worked out.
The wetland conversion thing in the North Bay is a form of managed retreat, i.e. move away. Important infrastructure can be left behind when that's done. It's gonna be a little more expensive this time...
From that evil Wikipedia:
Quote:Between 1901 and 2018, the average sea level rose by 15–25 cm (6–10 in), with an increase of 2.3 mm (0.091 in) per year since the 1970s. This was faster than the sea level had ever risen over at least the past 3,000 years. The rate accelerated to 4.62 mm (0.182 in)/yr for the decade 2013–2022. ... Between 1993 and 2018, melting ice sheets and glaciers accounted for 44% of sea level rise, with another 42% resulting from thermal expansion of water.
"How high?" depends on your timeframe and location and how much global warming continues. We're pretty much committed to at least 1 foot globally by 2100. It could easily reach 1 meter. And longer term, 75-100' (in our great-great-grandchildren's lifetime) is possible. Local rise can be more or less depending on land subsidence for various reasons; the North Bay has a bit of subsidence contributing.
There really are only two ways to react: find some way to (temporarily) protect what you've got, or move. Once things get to the point they are now, if you live below 10-20' elevation or have important infrastructure there, it's time to do or start planning something. Doing something that will last for at least 50 years or so is what the Highway 37 project is about. Should the railroad try to piggyback on it?
Last time this happened, people lived in temporary camps, had few belongings they couldn't carry, and along the coast had a lot of little boats. They moved. Undoubtedly there were a few conflicts along the way with those who already had territory staked out inland, but they were all related tribes so it probably worked out.
The wetland conversion thing in the North Bay is a form of managed retreat, i.e. move away. Important infrastructure can be left behind when that's done. It's gonna be a little more expensive this time...
